{ "service": "h3xa", "kind": "executive-briefing", "generated_at": "2026-10-28T18:08:40.439Z", "model_version": "h3xa-iss-1.1", "situation": { "id": "sit-59f01385243d0e3bdb3e36c4", "scope_type": "country", "scope_key": "KZ", "geography": "KZ", "title": "Internet disruption in KZ", "started_at": "2026-08-11T16:05:00.000Z", "last_observed_at": "2026-10-03T15:35:00.000Z", "status": "active", "classification": "PARTIAL_OUTAGE", "trajectory": "STABLE", "stress_score": 51, "confidence": 27, "event_count": 1, "affected_asns": [ "AS207446", "AS21299" ], "affected_services": [ "Web connectivity", "HTTPS", "ChatGPT", "Claude", "Facebook", "Gemini", "Instagram", "ProtonVPN", "Signal", "Telegram", "TikTok", "WhatsApp", "X", "YouTube", "BBC", "Lantern", "Medium", "New York Times", "Proton VPN", "Psiphon", "The Guardian", "Twitter/X" ], "affected_regions": [ "KZ" ], "source_count": 1, "record_origin": "unrecorded", "first_seen": "2026-08-29T22:33:33.694Z", "updated_at": "2026-10-03T23:50:37.920Z" }, "events": [ { "id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "entity_type": "country", "entity_key": "KZ", "geography": "KZ", "started_at": "2026-08-11T16:05:00.000Z", "last_observed_at": "2026-10-03T15:35:00.000Z", "status": "active", "classification": "SERVICE_BLOCKING", "trajectory": "STABLE", "stress_score": 51, "confidence": 8, "components": { "anomaly": 0.6371305692563679, "breadth": 0.4600000000000001, "persistence": 1, "corroboration": 0, "baseline_deviation": 0.5294117647058824 }, "confidence_factors": { "method_diversity": 0.25, "source_agreement": 0, "timestamp_overlap": 0, "infrastructure_overlap": 0, "alternative_explanations": 0.5, "statistical_significance": 0.6371305692563679 }, "baseline": { "signals": [ "voidly.anomaly_rate" ], "signal_count": 1 }, "current_measurement": { "voidly.anomaly_rate": 0.011347517730496455 }, "deviation": { "max_anomaly": 0.6371305692563679, "max_deviation": 0.5294117647058824 }, "affected_asns": [ "AS207446", "AS21299" ], "affected_services": [ "Web connectivity", "HTTPS", "ChatGPT", "Claude", "Facebook", "Gemini", "Instagram", "ProtonVPN", "Signal", "Telegram", "TikTok", "WhatsApp", "X", "YouTube", "BBC", "Lantern", "Medium", "New York Times", "Proton VPN", "Psiphon", "The Guardian", "Twitter/X" ], "affected_regions": [ "KZ" ], "source_count": 1, "alternative_explanations": [ "single-source signal", "insufficient corroboration" ], "observation_count": 10, "ingestion_method": null, "first_seen": "2026-08-29T22:33:22.755Z", "updated_at": "2026-10-03T23:50:14.069Z", "evidence": [ { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--4c0cd0e1-0312-5c49-6037-1321f423077e", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2022-01-04T00:00:00.000Z", "name": "January protests shutdown", "value": "c654f5f26faa", "content_hash": "2113174b6fdbcbaa", "object_json": { "id": "incident--4c0cd0e1-0312-5c49-6037-1321f423077e", "name": "January protests shutdown", "type": "incident", "title": "January protests shutdown", "value": "c654f5f26faa", "status": "confirmed", "sources": [ "OONI", "Voidly ML" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 78, "start_time": "2022-01-04T00:00:00Z", "description": "Anomaly rate: 52.9% (308 measurements).", "anomaly_rate": 0.5294117647058824, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "incident_type": "censorship", "affected_domains": [], "affected_services": [ "Web connectivity", "HTTPS" ] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--9650cf6b-f698-5340-39b0-434afff238a7", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2022-01-11T00:00:00.000Z", "name": "January protests shutdown", "value": "6e0fe924140b", "content_hash": "bf11bd8ab5a7ce23", "object_json": { "id": "incident--9650cf6b-f698-5340-39b0-434afff238a7", "name": "January protests shutdown", "type": "incident", "title": "January protests shutdown", "value": "6e0fe924140b", "status": "confirmed", "sources": [ "OONI", "Voidly ML" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "warning", "confidence": 70, "start_time": "2022-01-11T00:00:00Z", "description": "Anomaly rate: 37.4% (5 measurements).", "anomaly_rate": 0.3739948205697373, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "incident_type": "censorship", "affected_domains": [], "affected_services": [] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--274f33b8-5512-5610-7e4f-a7019656261d", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-08-11T16:05:00.000Z", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0424", "content_hash": "7ed30c1d42f16ed3", "object_json": { "id": "incident--274f33b8-5512-5610-7e4f-a7019656261d", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0424", "status": "active", "sources": [ "ioda" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 65, "start_time": "2026-08-11T16:05:00Z", "description": "IODA detected significant connectivity drop in Kazakhstan. 1 critical alerts recorded.", "anomaly_rate": 0.011278195488721804, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [], "incident_type": "disruption", "duration_hours": null, "affected_domains": [], "affected_services": [] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--5e8cfbbf-e9f8-5054-ff16-e43cc5079844", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-08-12T10:20:00.000Z", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0425", "content_hash": "6bde4f0f6162a661", "object_json": { "id": "incident--5e8cfbbf-e9f8-5054-ff16-e43cc5079844", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0425", "status": "active", "sources": [ "ioda", "censoredplanet" ], "end_time": "2026-08-12T10:50:00Z", "severity": "critical", "confidence": 70, "start_time": "2026-08-12T10:20:00Z", "description": "IODA detected significant connectivity drop in Kazakhstan. 6 critical alerts recorded. CenAlert confirms censorship activity.", "anomaly_rate": 0.23862895568517892, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [], "incident_type": "mixed", "duration_hours": null, "affected_domains": [], "affected_services": [] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--c9a9b71d-5ef6-555c-4000-8c0e502d4dbb", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-08-13T21:30:00.000Z", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0428", "content_hash": "064cf958a98412be", "object_json": { "id": "incident--c9a9b71d-5ef6-555c-4000-8c0e502d4dbb", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0428", "status": "active", "sources": [ "ioda" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 65, "start_time": "2026-08-13T21:30:00Z", "description": "IODA detected significant connectivity drop in Kazakhstan. 1 critical alerts recorded.", "anomaly_rate": 0.01968019680196802, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [], "incident_type": "disruption", "duration_hours": null, "affected_domains": [], "affected_services": [] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--7e4c52c7-3f3b-5c76-9d9a-8fcdf1739f38", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-08-26T04:45:00.000Z", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0441", "content_hash": "3e2a237a281708fc", "object_json": { "id": "incident--7e4c52c7-3f3b-5c76-9d9a-8fcdf1739f38", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0441", "status": "active", "sources": [ "ioda", "censoredplanet" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 65, "start_time": "2026-08-26T04:45:00Z", "description": "IODA detected significant connectivity drop in Kazakhstan. 1 critical alerts recorded. CenAlert confirms censorship activity.", "anomaly_rate": 0.030042918454935622, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [ "AS207446", "AS21299" ], "incident_type": "mixed", "duration_hours": null, "affected_domains": [ "bbc.com", "chat.openai.com", "chatgpt.com", "claude.ai", "facebook.com", "gemini.google.com", "getlantern.org", "google.com", "huggingface.co", "instagram.com", "medium.com", "nytimes.com", "openai.com", "protonvpn.com", "psiphon.ca", "reddit.com", "signal.org", "substack.com", "telegram.org", "theguardian.com", "tiktok.com", "tumblr.com", "twitter.com", "whatsapp.com", "youtube.com" ], "affected_services": [ "ChatGPT", "Claude", "Facebook", "Gemini", "Instagram", "ProtonVPN", "Signal", "Telegram", "TikTok", "WhatsApp", "X", "YouTube" ] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--46355592-1717-55d7-c1a2-37ed96df2023", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-09-23T19:50:00.000Z", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0468", "content_hash": "c4e15da7de169be2", "object_json": { "id": "incident--46355592-1717-55d7-c1a2-37ed96df2023", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0468", "status": "active", "sources": [ "ioda", "censoredplanet" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 65, "start_time": "2026-09-23T19:50:00Z", "description": "IODA detected significant connectivity drop in Kazakhstan. 1 critical alerts recorded. CenAlert confirms censorship activity.", "anomaly_rate": 0.021592442645074223, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [ "AS207446", "AS21299" ], "incident_type": "mixed", "duration_hours": 0, "affected_domains": [ "bbc.com", "chat.openai.com", "chatgpt.com", "claude.ai", "facebook.com", "gemini.google.com", "getlantern.org", "google.com", "huggingface.co", "instagram.com", "medium.com", "nytimes.com", "openai.com", "protonvpn.com", "psiphon.ca", "reddit.com", "signal.org", "substack.com", "telegram.org", "theguardian.com", "tiktok.com", "tumblr.com", "twitter.com", "whatsapp.com", "youtube.com" ], "affected_services": [ "BBC", "ChatGPT", "Claude", "Facebook", "Gemini", "Instagram", "Lantern", "Medium", "New York Times", "Proton VPN", "ProtonVPN", "Psiphon", "Signal", "Telegram", "The Guardian", "TikTok", "Twitter/X", "WhatsApp", "X", "YouTube" ] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--04623e78-9670-5362-e2c0-4d939334173e", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z", "name": "Internet censorship detected in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0472", "content_hash": "624f2c5f223099f0", "object_json": { "id": "incident--04623e78-9670-5362-e2c0-4d939334173e", "name": "Internet censorship detected in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet censorship detected in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0472", "status": "suspected", "sources": [ "censoredplanet" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 65, "start_time": "2026-09-27T00:00:00Z", "description": "CenAlert detected interference. Impact: 1.0. Reported by: DNS blocking detected: 5/5 probes anomalous (100.0%) for bbc.com.", "anomaly_rate": 0.01, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [ "AS207446", "AS21299" ], "incident_type": "censorship", "duration_hours": null, "affected_domains": [ "bbc.com", "chat.openai.com", "chatgpt.com", "claude.ai", "facebook.com", "gemini.google.com", "getlantern.org", "google.com", "huggingface.co", "instagram.com", "medium.com", "nytimes.com", "openai.com", "protonvpn.com", "psiphon.ca", "reddit.com", "signal.org", "substack.com", "telegram.org", "theguardian.com", "tiktok.com", "tumblr.com", "twitter.com", "whatsapp.com", "youtube.com" ], "affected_services": [ "ChatGPT", "Claude", "Facebook", "Gemini", "Instagram", "ProtonVPN", "Signal", "Telegram", "TikTok", "WhatsApp", "X", "YouTube" ] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--b7b72e58-bdb4-5114-f2b7-e3361e39cb41", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z", "name": "Internet censorship detected in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0475", "content_hash": "6f79e76dc1e702a5", "object_json": { "id": "incident--b7b72e58-bdb4-5114-f2b7-e3361e39cb41", "name": "Internet censorship detected in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet censorship detected in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0475", "status": "suspected", "sources": [ "censoredplanet" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 65, "start_time": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z", "description": "CenAlert detected interference. Impact: 1.0. Reported by: DNS blocking detected: 6/6 probes anomalous (100.0%) for bbc.com.", "anomaly_rate": 0.01, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [ "AS207446", "AS21299" ], "incident_type": "censorship", "duration_hours": null, "affected_domains": [ "bbc.com", "chat.openai.com", "chatgpt.com", "claude.ai", "facebook.com", "gemini.google.com", "getlantern.org", "google.com", "huggingface.co", "instagram.com", "medium.com", "nytimes.com", "openai.com", "protonvpn.com", "psiphon.ca", "reddit.com", "signal.org", "substack.com", "telegram.org", "theguardian.com", "tiktok.com", "tumblr.com", "twitter.com", "whatsapp.com", "youtube.com" ], "affected_services": [ "ChatGPT", "Claude", "Facebook", "Gemini", "Instagram", "ProtonVPN", "Signal", "Telegram", "TikTok", "WhatsApp", "X", "YouTube" ] } }, { "event_id": "ise-f477b01afe27ef232935f536", "stix_object_id": "incident--78f0c133-796a-57a0-3ac2-ec4a5e88dd79", "platform": "voidly-atlas", "observed_at": "2026-10-03T15:35:00.000Z", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0477", "content_hash": "2677c1f66bcb5c57", "object_json": { "id": "incident--78f0c133-796a-57a0-3ac2-ec4a5e88dd79", "name": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "type": "incident", "title": "Internet connectivity disruption in Kazakhstan", "value": "kz-2026-0477", "status": "active", "sources": [ "ioda" ], "end_time": null, "severity": "critical", "confidence": 65, "start_time": "2026-10-03T15:35:00Z", "description": "IODA detected significant connectivity drop in Kazakhstan. 1 critical alerts recorded.", "anomaly_rate": 0.011347517730496455, "country_code": "KZ", "country_name": "Kazakhstan", "spec_version": "2.1", "affected_asns": [], "incident_type": "disruption", "duration_hours": null, "affected_domains": [], "affected_services": [] } } ], "derivations": [] } ], "context": [], "audit": { "principle": "Source observations stay attributed to their feed. Stress scores, classifications, and this pack are H3XA-derived and cite the inputs that produced them.", "weights": { "anomaly": 0.3, "breadth": 0.2, "persistence": 0.15, "corroboration": 0.2, "baseline_deviation": 0.15 }, "derivation_ids": [], "observation_ids": [ "incident--4c0cd0e1-0312-5c49-6037-1321f423077e", "incident--9650cf6b-f698-5340-39b0-434afff238a7", "incident--274f33b8-5512-5610-7e4f-a7019656261d", "incident--5e8cfbbf-e9f8-5054-ff16-e43cc5079844", "incident--c9a9b71d-5ef6-555c-4000-8c0e502d4dbb", "incident--7e4c52c7-3f3b-5c76-9d9a-8fcdf1739f38", "incident--46355592-1717-55d7-c1a2-37ed96df2023", "incident--04623e78-9670-5362-e2c0-4d939334173e", "incident--b7b72e58-bdb4-5114-f2b7-e3361e39cb41", "incident--78f0c133-796a-57a0-3ac2-ec4a5e88dd79" ], "cross_domain": "Attached air, maritime, reference-CTI, and proprietary nodes are co-occurrence notes. They are not inputs to the stress score." } }